.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Here it comes

Ok, a little late, but this time the market is going down pretty hard. That little "computer error" that caused the previous collapse was indeed a computer phenomenon...but it was not entirely computer generated.

What did likely trigger the massive and quick collapse was limit sell orders being placed, which means people tell their computers to sell a stock if it reaches a certain limit. A whole lot of those being placed at once can cause computers to enter into bidding wars without buyers, driving a stock price to near zero.

They blamed it on a computer error...something about a decimal point misplaced. Nonsense, it was human error made worse through computers.

The damage from this error? A blip...nothing really...but take it as a message of things to come.

What would cause a lot of people to put sell orders on stocks at once. A lot of termoil around the world (earthquakes, volcanoes, flooding) for one...but the underlying cause of it all, is a lack of confidence. It's something that's creeping up on all of us...the realization that nothing is really getting better around us...could this be...a false recovery?

That is, in fact, what the past year and a half have been about. It was a sigh of relief that armeggedon had not reached us, then an overzealous rally had us partying like it was 1999 again.

The false recovery has sustained because nothing has been around to trigger it. Enter Greece, then Portugal, and probably a few more problems and the Euro drop will intensify, which will help drive world markets back down.

I sold into a whole lot of bonds last fall, and they have actually outperformed the market since. Mostly safe stuff, immediate term bond funds will give you a decent amount of appreciation and shelter you from the big hit to come.

Expect some more rough days for the markets in the near future, as European money issues drag us all into a recession. On the bright side, if you're on the sidelines as far as the markets, you'll enjoy some cheap gasoline and TV's while the rest of the country is depressed over their 401k.

Sideline yourself, and soon. The rumors of a full recovery are premature.

No comments:

Post a Comment